May, 2013

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: May 19, 2013

    The dollar gained 1.4g gold this week, which means gold price in dollars went down $88. This is another big move that will give a false sense of confidence to the Keynesians and Monetarists (one of the business news sites was crowing this week that “Keynes has won”). They are wrong. The strengthening […]

Latvian Deflation will Increase their Debt Burden

This article claims that falling prices will increase Latvia’s burden of debt. It is not falling prices, but falling interest rates, that increase the burden of debt (and it is not just Latvia but the whole world, which has falling interest rates). Think of borrowing at the high level as selling a bond. Think of selling […]

Are Japanese Banks on the Verge of Insolvency?

“…holdings in [gold] exchange-traded funds fell to the lowest in over four years…” as this article states. But is this a real relationship? Do holdings at the ETF necessarily fall with a falling gold price and rise with a rising gold price? The same thing has not occurred in SLV–amidst an even larger price drop than that of […]

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Homebuilder confidence increased in May. Lumber prices in the last two months? Not so much, down over 20%.   When I was a kid, I saw many competing stereo receivers offering higher and higher wattage. It was pretty ridiculous to see these lightweight and flimsy boxes claiming to put out 500 watts or more. Clearly […]

Theory of Interest and Prices in Paper Currency Part II (Mechanics)

In Part I, we looked at the concepts of nonlinearity, dynamics, multivariate, state, and contiguity. We showed that whatever the relationship may be between prices and the money supply in irredeemable paper currency, it is not a simple matter of rising money supply –> rising prices. Here is a fitting footnote for Part I. I […]

“Indisputable Proof”

If there really was gold manipulation, articles like this one would do an injustice. The author uses the word “indisputable”. I do not think that word means what he thinks it means. According to this article: “Indian inflation eased to a 41-month low in April, giving the central bank room to extend monetary easing…” I think […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: May 12, 2013

The dollar gained this week about 0.3g, which means gold “went down” $22. The gold bugs may be feeling cheated again. We are more interest in the basis than the price. First, here is the graph showing the prices of the metals in dollar terms. There was a little motion upwards, but mostly sideways and […]

Forensic Basis Analysis of Apr 12-15 Gold Crash

With all the discussion of the crash of April 12-15, I thought it would be interesting to do a little forensic analysis. Instead of looking at price graphs, let’s look at a graph of the gold basis. Contrary to the currently popular assertion that the gold price crashed due to manipulation, the evidence points to something […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: May 5, 2013

Sometimes not a lot happens. The dollar fell this week about 0.1g, which means gold “went up” $8. The gold bugs may be feeling somewhat better, but what is the basis saying? First, here is the graph showing the prices of the metals in dollar terms. As with last week, there was some up and down […]

A Picture of Capital Destruction in Germany

Today, the European Central Bank announced that it was cutting interest rates. It also said that it was open to negative deposit rates. We are witnessing nothing less than the metastasis of monetary cancer. A falling interest rate causes the destruction of capital. Here is a picture of the rate falling from over 4% to […]