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Backwardation, the Bank of England, and Falling Prices

In commodity markets backwardation is an indicator of physical shortages. Shortages result in buyers bidding up the cash price of the commodity above the future prices. This creates a profitable trade (called decarry) for those holding the physical commodity – they can sell it now and buy a futures contract at a lower price, locking […]

Gold and Silver Price Drop of 3 July, 2017

The price of gold dropped from $1,241 as of Friday’s close to $1,219 on the close Monday, or -1.8%. The price of silver fell from $16.58 to $16.11, or -2.9%. It is being called a gold and silver “smash” (implication being that one party or a conspiracy is doing the smashing). Our goal is to […]

Why Are We Here?

I don’t mean the meaning of life, the universe and everything. I mean why are we in the gold market? This week and especially today, I have seen so many emails, messages, and articles with the same theme. “Woe is me.” Seriously? The price of gold dropped $100 in a couple of months, and it’s like […]

Crude Oil Supply and Demand

We don’t normally analyze the crude oil market. However, there has been a huge price move (which may not be complete yet). With the endless rumors of deals that explain the move, we thought we would look at the spreads. The data shows a startling picture. You should approach supply and demand in this market […]

A Picture of Gold Availability Update

The December gold future went into backwardation today, July 31. Below, we show the dates when previous gold contracts went into backwardation. As you can see, it is creeping farther and farther out. This is a picture of gold availability to the market drying up. – Apr first backwardated Feb 15, 30 trading days before […]

A Picture of Gold Availability

The October gold future went into backwardation today, July 8. Below, we show the dates when previous gold contracts went into backwardation. As you can see, it is creeping farther and farther out. This is a picture of gold availability to the market drying up. – Apr first backwardated Feb 15, 30 trading days before […]

The Importance of Gold Backwardation

Gold is in Backwardation!

Gold Caught With Its Backwardation Showing

With all the discussion on the Internet, some of it confusing, we thought a picture would be worth a thousand words. Backwardation is when there is a profit to decarry the metal. This is the simultaneous sale of metal in the spot market and purchase of metal in the futures market. Selling is on the […]

Gold Leaps Into Backwardation!

Since late January, the February gold contract has been in backwardation.  This means that one could make a profit by simultaneously selling a gold bar and buying a February contract.  One would still have one’s gold plus a little extra.  I coined the term “temporary backwardation” (http://monetary-metals.com/temporary-backwardation-the-path-forward-from-2008-3/), to describe this curious and very recent phenomenon.  […]