Research

Falling Interest Causes Falling Wages

Interest rates have been falling for over three decades. Conventional economics has two things to say about this. One, inflation expectations are falling. Monetarists believe that the interest rate is set based on bond traders’ predictions of future price increases. Two, if employment and GDP are weak, then the central bank should increase the money […]

The Lazy 1970’s vs. the Frenetic 2000’s

Inflation 1970's

To listen to the audio version of this article click here. Many people today see the Fed’s Quantitative Easing as money printing. They remember what happened in the 1970’s, and they instantly jump to conclusions. However, we live in a different world. To illustrate this, consider the following story about Joe, a promising and eager […]

Oscillation, Feedback, and Resonance

I just saw this fascinating video of a bunch of metronomes that begin ticking out of sync with one another, but slowly line up until they all beat in unison. I really love the title slide where it says “NONLINEAR DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS”, how apropos! Watch the video, the outcome is counterintuitive. The metronomes show some principles […]

Falling Interest Rates Destroy Capital

Falling Interest Rate

I have written other pieces on the topic of fractional reserve banking and duration mismatch, which is when someone borrows short-term money to lend long-term and how falling interest rates actually encourage duration mismatch. Falling interest rates are a feature of our current monetary regime, so central that any look at a graph of 10-year […]

Falling Interest Rates and Duration Mismatch

Falling Interest Rates and Duration Mismatch

Since 1982, US Treasurys have been in a bull market. This is Exhibit A: the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond (the yield and the market price of the bond are inversely related, like a teeter-totter). This statement should not be controversial. But outside Austrian circles, most people don’t understand that this structural decline is […]