Research

Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part III (Gold as a Commodity)

In Part I, we discussed the concept of arbitrage. We showed why defining it as a risk-free investment that earns more than the risk-free rate of interest is invalid. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment, and in any case economics must be focused on the acting man rather than theoretical constructs. We […]

Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part II (the Lease Rate)

In Part I, we discussed the concept of arbitrage. We showed why defining it as a risk-free investment that earns more than the risk-free rate of interest is invalid. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment, and in any case, economics must be focused on the acting man rather than theoretical constructs. We […]

Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part I

Professor Tom Fischer has written three papers[1][2][3] about gold backwardation and arbitrage. Across these three papers, he makes a case against the ideas of Professor Antal Fekete. I write this response solely on my own behalf. I do not speak on behalf of Fekete or his New Austrian school of Economics. I have two motivations […]

Oscillation, Feedback, and Resonance

I just saw this fascinating video of a bunch of metronomes that begin ticking out of sync with one another, but slowly line up until they all beat in unison. I really love the title slide where it says “NONLINEAR DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS”, how apropos! Watch the video, the outcome is counterintuitive. The metronomes show some principles […]

Selling Low and Buying High: Hedging by the Gold Miners Part II

In Part I, I made several points. First, that in the last gold bear market, miners capitulated after prices were low and falling for a long time. Then they sold massive amounts of their future production forward. Years into the subsequent bull market, they capitulated again, this time buying back the rights to their own […]

What Drives Negative GOFO and Temporary Gold Backwardation?

I coined the term temporary backwardation in March of last year. This is what I said: But in the “new normal”, post 2008, the expiring gold or silver future often flirts with or even slips into backwardation for a period before expiry.  This is anything but normal.  It’s not a sign of imminent financial Armageddon, […]

Selling Low and Buying High: Hedging by the Gold Miners

Hedging is a controversial topic, probably as controversial as any I have written about. Nevertheless, I want to share my thoughts and hopefully add something new to the topic. It is general knowledge that the gold miners had adopted hedging during the long years when the gold price was moving sideways to downwards, culminating in […]

Why is Gold Draining out of COMEX Warehouses?

Gold conspiracy theorists have a new bogeyman. Inventories of gold bars held in the COMEX warehouses are falling. This fact is offered to support the stale allegations of “fractional gold” and “manipulation”. They have been predicting a “signal failure” that is coming any day now, like the Great Pumpkin in the Charlie Brown Halloween special. […]

What is the Meaning of GLD Gold Outflows?

A quick glance at the data for ounces held by each Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) shows that right after the crash of 2008, ounces began to pour into GLD. Ignoring a little jitter, there was no significant outflow until 2013. GLD has lost over 20% of its metal so far this year, dropping from about […]

The Dollar is Going Up

Let’s take a look at a few graphs of the dollar, from Feb 1, 2013 through Friday May 17, 2013. Yes, I said graphs of the dollar. I’ve priced the dollar in gold first (of course), then silver, the euro, and even the yen. The pattern is obvious. The dollar is going up. I did […]