Premium Reports

What Made Silver Go Up, Update 20 Oct 2017

Silver’s move on October 19th was more extreme than gold’s (see here for an explanation of gold’s price action). The price move was four times as great. What of the basis move? The basis move was also correspondingly larger: 30bps vs. 7bps. Again, it uncannily tracks the price. Unlike gold—for whatever it’s worth—the silver basis […]

Gold and Silver Intraday for Friday 6 Oct 2017

These are the intraday charts for Friday, subscriber-only supplement to the Supply and Demand Report for 8 October. The price action was pretty crazy on Friday, so we wanted to show what happened with the basis. Speculative or fundamental? Here is the chart. We see that the basis tracks the price. Although, there is this […]

Thoughtful Disagreement with Ted Butler – Gold Basis

This article follows on from Keith Weiner’s response to Ted Butler’s Thoughtful Disagreement challenge. Below is a graph of all 130 gold contracts since February 1996, aligned by contract age in terms of number of days until expiry on the X axis of the chart and basis in percentage per annum on the Y axis. […]

Outlook 2016

We have consistently been making the contrarian call for a falling silver price and a rising gold to silver ratio for years. This ratio has risen a lot during this time. So are we ready to change our call yet? This being the start of a new year, we wanted to take the opportunity to […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 28 June, 2015

The price of gold sagged all week. The price of silver took a similar journey, though it was up on Monday. On the week, they were down 25 bucks and 28 cents, respectively. On Friday around midnight Arizona time, there was a flash crash. We will publish a forensic analysis of this event late on […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 21 June, 2015

The Fed made an announcement on Wednesday. Moderate consumer spending growth and improving housing sector balanced against soft business investment and exports. Prices are rising, but not as much as the Fed would like. The announcement roiled the markets. Here’s a graph of the 10-year Treasury yield and the S&P Futures up to and after […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 14 June, 2015

The price of gold was up $9 this week, while the price of silver dropped 16 cents. This means the gold to silver ratio (a measure of how expensive gold is in silver terms) rose 1.3 points or almost 1.8%. This is a picture of credit contraction writ small. Well, it’s small so far. Since […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 7 June, 2015

The world is still a mess, just as much as it was last week. Despite that, the price of gold fell $18 and the price of silver fell $0.63. What’s going on? Are the central banks putting the kibosh on the monetary metals? One view is that they don’t want to let people use cash […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 31 May, 2015

Last week, we were skeptical of the alleged coming Chinese gold standard and its alleged impact on the gold price. This week, the price of gold fell $15. The price of silver fell 35 cents. We’re not aware of any Chinese silver standard rumors, but perhaps if one were to begin then the price of […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 17 May, 2015

On Wednesday, retail sales data was published. The numbers were disappointing, and markets roiled. The prices of gold and silver shot up. There was no looking back and both metals ended at their high prices for the week. The euro also jumped up, about a cent and a quarter. Now, of course, gold analysts are […]