Basic Reports

The Purchasing Power of Capital, Report 29 Sep

We discuss capital consumption all the time, because it is the megatrend of our era. However, capital consumption is an abstract idea. So let’s consider some concrete examples, to help make it clearer. Flipping Homes, Consuming Capital First, let’s look at the case of Timothy Housetrader. Tim has a small two-bedroom house. Next door, his […]

Rising Interest and Prices, Report 13 Jan 2019

For years, people blamed the global financial crisis on greed. Doesn’t this make you want to scream out, “what, were people not greedy in 2007 or 1997??” Greed utterly fails to explain the phenomenon. It merely serves to reinforce a previously-held belief. Far be it from us to challenge previously-held beliefs (OK, OK, we may […]

Take It To The Bank: Interest Rates Won’t Rise, Report 11 Feb 2018

How Not to Predict Interest Rates We continue our hiatus from capital destruction to look further at interest rates. Last week, our Report was almost prescient. We said: The first thing we must say about this is that people should pick one: (A) rising stock market or (B) rising interest rates. They both cannot be […]

The Fed’s Passive Aggressive Play, Report 4 Feb 2018

Singing the song of rising rates Last week, we took a break from the theme of the consumption of capital, for our annual Outlook 2018 report. We are going to leave the topic for one more week, while we address a market move which is on everyone’s mind. Are interest rates now in a rising […]

The Bitcoin Effect, Gold and Silver Report 24 Dec 2017

Merry Christmas to our American friends. Happy Christmas to the rest of the Anglosphere. Felicem natalem Christi to our Latin-speaking audience, and góðr jól to those who are reviving Old Norse as a great language! Let’s address two themes about the gold price trend that are increasingly in popularity the past few months—as the price […]

Falling Productivity of Debt, Gold and Silver Report 15 Oct 2017

Last week, we discussed the ongoing fall of dividend, and especially earnings, yields. This Report is not a stock letter, and we make no stock market predictions. We talk about this phenomenon to make a different point. The discount rate has fallen to a very low level indeed. Discount in stocks is how you assess […]

Silver Is Now Offered At a Discount, Report 2 July, 2017

Have you ever been in a discussion about gold, when someone blurts out “we don’t have enough gold to operate a gold standard!” We have a standard retort. “Oh, that’s interesting. Please tell us how much gold you think would be necessary, and how you calculated it.” We have never heard a coherent answer to […]

The Fed Rate Hike and Gold, Report 18 June, 2017

The big news this week comes from the Fed, which announced two things. One, it hiked the Fed Funds rate another 25 basis points. The target is now 1.00 to 1.25%, and there will be further increases this year. Two, the Fed to reduce its balance sheet, its portfolio of bonds. It won’t do this […]