Basic Reports

Super-Duper-Irrational Exuberance, Report 11 Mar 2018

Think back to the halcyon days of the dot com boom. This was a time after Greenspan declared “irrational exuberance”. Long Term Capital Management collapsed in 1998, and Greenspan decided to risk propelling exuberance to a level beyond irrational. Super-duper-irrational exuberance? Anyway, Greenspan cut interest rates a few times in late 1998. Technology companies were […]

Inflation Is Not Under Control, Report 3 Mar 2018

Let’s continue on our topic of capital consumption. It’s an important area of study, as our system of central bank socialism imposes many incentives to consume and destroy capital. As capital is the leverage that increases the productivity of human effort, it is vital that we understand what’s happening. We do not work harder today, […]

Gold is a Giant Ouija Board, Report 25 Feb 2018

We have been promising to get back to the topic of capital destruction, which we put on hiatus for the last several weeks to make our case that the interest rate remains in a falling trend. Today, we have a different way of looking at capital destruction. Socialism is the system of seeking out and […]

Irredeemable Currency De-tooths Savers, Report 18 Feb 2018

Arbitrary Interest Rates In the past few weeks, we have argued that interest rates will not rise. We have made our arguments based on observable cases of soft credit demand that falls with rising rates, and analysis of the incentives on creditors and debtors. Ours is a case that rates can’t go up much, for […]

Take It To The Bank: Interest Rates Won’t Rise, Report 11 Feb 2018

How Not to Predict Interest Rates We continue our hiatus from capital destruction to look further at interest rates. Last week, our Report was almost prescient. We said: The first thing we must say about this is that people should pick one: (A) rising stock market or (B) rising interest rates. They both cannot be […]

The Fed’s Passive Aggressive Play, Report 4 Feb 2018

Singing the song of rising rates Last week, we took a break from the theme of the consumption of capital, for our annual Outlook 2018 report. We are going to leave the topic for one more week, while we address a market move which is on everyone’s mind. Are interest rates now in a rising […]

Monetary Metals Brief 2018

Predicting the likely path of the prices of the metals in the near term is easy. Just look at the fundamentals. We have invested many man-years in developing the theory, model, and software to calculate it. Every week we publish charts and our calculated fundamental prices. However, predicting the outlook for a longer period of […]

Shut Down Shoddy Debt, Report 21 Jan 2018

We have been discussing the consumption of capital. We again must say: “We see people eating more of the seed corn.” Right now as we write this on Saturday afternoon, the US government has “shut down”, due to a political impasse on the legislation to fund its continuing operations. Government funding is a mix of […]

Speculating Our Way to Prosperity, Report 15 Jan 2018

We have been discussing the consumption of capital. Last week, for example, we concluded with: “We see people eating more of the seed corn.” Morally, socialism is the enslavement of man to man. If you create something, they want not just to take it from you, but to render you unable to create anything else. […]

Quantum Change in Gold Demand Continues, Report 7 Jan 2018

Short-term interest rates have been relentlessly rising since the second half of 2015. For example, 3-month LIBOR was 0.28% in July of that year. It is now 1.7%. This is just a result of the Fed centrally planning our economy, managing our interest rate for us. Long-term rates have not moved. The 10-year Treasury yield […]