Basic Reports

Prediction: Gold and Ratio Up, Stocks Down 27 Sep, 2015

The price of gold moved up moderately, and the price of silver moved down a few cents this week. However, there were some interesting fireworks in the middle of the week. Tuesday, the prices dropped and Thursday the prices of the metals popped $23 and $0.34 respectively. Everyone can judge the sentiment prevailing in gold […]

Price Moves and Term Structures 20 Sep, 2015

The prices of the metals moved up a bunch this week, with gold + $32 and silver +$0.55. We have seen some discussion of gold backwardation in the context of scarcity, and hence setting expectations of higher prices. That’s good, as the swings from contango to backwardation and back are the only way to understand […]

Gold, Silver, and Horse Betting Report 13 Sep, 2015

Consider the sport of betting on the sport of horse racing. It’s actually similar to the analysis of the gold and silver markets. How’s that? First, there is the manic-depressive crowd. Sometimes (as we are told—we don’t hang out at race tracks) the bettors sometimes get overly excited about a horse with slim chances to […]

Supply and Demand Report 6 Sep, 2015

This was a fairly quiet week in the market for the metals, with a min-rally on Thursday especially in silver which hit almost $15. By the end of the week, the price of gold was down $13 and the price of silver was up 3 cents. The action was elsewhere (e.g. equities and currencies). We […]

The Gold and Silver Fundamentals, 30 Aug, 2015

Last week, we called for a rising gold to silver ratio. On Wednesday, this ratio hit nearly 80 before backing down a bit by the end of the week. It did not happen with a rising price of gold, rather it was a function of a falling silver price. On Wednesday, the silver price was […]

The Exquisite Market Setup, 23 Aug, 2015

There is an exquisite setup building once again. Tight fundamentals in the gold market apply upwards pressure on the price. For quite a while, we have been saying gold’s fundamental price was around a hundred bucks above the market price. Well, the market price moved up $46 this week. What happened to the fundamental price? […]

Why Is Gold Becoming Scarcer, 16 Aug 2015

For quite a while, we have been talking about scarcity in gold. The cobasis for both October and December is positive. These contracts are backwardated. The cobasis for the February 2016 contract is not far from backwardation. The gold market is tight. Why? Let’s explore. Part of the matter is that the price has fallen. […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 9 August, 2015

Last week, we left off with this. “Something is happening with gold…” It began in Dec 2008. To understand it, it is necessary to understand two principles. The first is that gold is money and the dollar is credit, which currently has nontrivial value. A dollar is worth 28.4mg gold. To understand the second, let’s […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 2 August, 2015

You cannot understand gold if you think it goes up and down, that the dollar is money and therefore the measure of all things, including gold. This is a very bold statement, so let’s look a little closer. Mainstream articles often ask the question if gold is a good inflation hedge, which means: does gold […]

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report 26 July, 2015

For those who are speculating on the dollar—i.e. most people—there was good news this week. The dollar rose almost a milligram, to 28.3mg gold. That’s a big gain, and welcome news for those who keep all of their eggs in the one dollar basket, perhaps because they don’t want to risk any of it on […]