Ep 49 – Larry Lepard: Fighting the Broken Monetary System
Fix the money, fix the world! Larry Lepard, Managing Partner at Equity Management Associates and vocal sound money advocate, joins the Gold Exchange Podcast LIVE in New Orleans! Listen to Ben and Larry discuss the Fed’s doom loop, the dollar parabola problem, and what investors might consider as their monetary escape hatch.
Connect with Larry on Twitter and read his thoughts at Equity Management Associates
Connect with Keith Weiner and Monetary Metals on Twitter: @RealKeithWeiner @Monetary_Metals
Additional Resources
Larry’s Speech at the New Orleans Investment Conference
Common Ground Between Bitcoin and Gold
Ukraine and Useless Ingredients
Podcast Chapters
Chapters 00:00-00:15
Intro 00:15-00:44
Larry Lepard 00:44-3:07
The Fed Doom Loop 3:07-5:47
The Foreign Dollar Milkshake 5:47-7:54
Rate Hike Impacts and Inflation 7:54-10:03
Slaying Zombie Firms 10:03-14:05
The Future of Precious Metal Prices 14:05-16:33
Worst/Best Asset of 2022 16:33-18:04
Powell Pivot and the Crisis 18:04-19:01
The Monetary Escape Hatch 19:01-20:58
Economic Prizes and Reading Lists 20:59-23:08
Investing Asymmetry 23:08-23:34
Where to Find Larry 23:34-25:04
Stress Testing 25:04-25:55
Transcript:
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Welcome back to the Gold Exchange Podcast. We are today here in New Orleans at the New Orleans Investment Conference 2022. I’m joined by special guest Larry Lepard. Larry is a sound money advocate, fix the money, fix the world. And he’s in charge of Gold Fund EMA. Larry, really great to have you.
Larry Lepard:
Great to be on your show. Really appreciate the invite.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
So, Larry, you obviously have just a wide breadth of knowledge. You’re a sound money guy, and that’s what we love to have on the podcast. So let’s kind of dive into some extra questions.
Larry Lepard:
Go for it.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Let’s start with interest rates. So we’re in a kind of rising interest rate environment at the moment. Seems like Powell has really laid down the gauntlet, said we’re raising rates, but I see a lot of breaking happening. So do you think 20, 22, 20, 23, we’ll see a pivot?
Larry Lepard:
I do. And I think I rate it right now at about a 50% chance in 2022. And by the end of 2023, 100% chance because things are breaking quickly. The bank of England is the perfect recent example, but the Italian ten year, the Japanese, it’s worldwide, right? Things are breaking. And in the system we built with a debt level that we built, it cannot sustain higher interest rates for any period of time. It just can’t. And so they are going to be forced into a condition where they have to do yield curve control, which Japan is already doing it, and they need to purchase our bonds to keep the yields from going too high and creating a debt doom loop. So that’s coming. And the only issue is when.
I don’t think Powell I believe him when he says he doesn’t intend to pivot, and he doesn’t until something worse happens. They didn’t intend to print all the money they printed in 2020, but when the market fell apart and the bond market went no bid, they did it. And so the third Fed mandate we always talk about is financial continuity and stability. And so I’m of the opinion that as things come on glued here and something does break, they will be forced to pivot.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Yeah, that’s the question is what breaks and what’s important enough to central bankers to break that they say…
Larry Lepard:
It’s the bond market. The bond market is the leading indicator because and it’s where the trouble is as well, because we’re printing 8% inflation and the ten years at four. And so basically you’re losing 4% real on that bond every year you hold it. So in ten years you lose 40% of your money. It’s a bad deal unless you believe that inflation is going to severely come down. And I don’t. The bond market is going to continue to school them. And as it goes higher and higher in yield, that creates a bigger and bigger US. Deficit, which means they have to sell more bonds, which this is a doom loop.
What we’re seeing is G7 countries are starting to look the way emerging countries used to look. Right. I mean, this used to happen to Venezuela or Brazil or Argentina. This didn’t happen in G7 countries, but now it is. And that’s what happens when you get a really large sovereign debt crisis. And that’s what we’ve got going on.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Yeah. And I mean, talking about the sovereign debt crisis, right. There’s a lot of Brent Johnson, DXY Milkshake, and right now it seems to be playing out in global.
Larry Lepard:
Absolutely. I mean, a huge respect for Brent and his theory. I didn’t understand fully how much it would play out this way, and yet in my presentation, I showed and the presentation is available on Twitter, as I showed in my presentation, the dollar is kind of becoming a parabola. It’s going up incredibly quickly. And we all know in financial markets, we all know how parabolas, and they don’t end well. So to me, the dollar is kind of like the dollar strength is a little bit like the tide going out in front of the tsunami. Everything’s fine, the water is drawing out. You think, oh, we’re safe, it’s all good. But when it crashes, it’s going to be a hell of a mess.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Well, that tsunami analogies, really, right? Because it actually gets a little bit drier for a little bit. Things are getting better.
Larry Lepard:
Things are getting better. Right.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Tides were receding, and then there’s a 40 foot wave, exactly.
Larry Lepard:
A wall of water. Exactly.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
So let’s talk about those kind of other banks. So there’s a lot of skepticism and looking at, hey, the Fed is in a tough position here. But if the Fed is in a tough position, bank of England, bank of Japan, much tougher.
Larry Lepard:
I mean, they all have the problem we have, and it’s just hitting them first because they’re not the reserve currency. Japan’s been doing this for years and years, and the problem that they’re seeing is that the currency continues to slide. I mean, the Japanese yen is down like 20% this year. That’s like an enormous figure. One, two, 5% move in a G seven currency in any given year. That’s a big number. 20% is almost unheard of. And so what I think we’re seeing is the earlier stages of general fiat currency failure, or if not failure, very severe inflation.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
20%. You said 20% down this year!
Larry Lepard:
It is incredible. And the euro is going to go through the same thing. And the pound was going through the same thing until they intervened. Right. So it’s coming well, and let’s talk about that intervention.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Right. I think we discussed earlier, someone said it might have been Brent Johnson saying, when was the last time in history that a central bank or any government intervened into the markets this heavily and then it all went away. All that’s all we had to do. Just a one time fix.
Larry Lepard:
Yeah. It never happens.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
It never happens.
Larry Lepard:
It never happens. And so this has to me, this has a vibe. It’s very similar to whether you want to call it 2007 or the summer of 2008. You know, we’re building up to something here. Things are getting worse and more and more, to use the dyke analogy, you know, you’ve got fingers in the dyke, but the leaks keep springing up and at some point I think the dyke is going to break. That’s how I see it.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Yeah. And I want to talk now about actually what rate hikes are doing, because there’s a lot of nonmonetary forces that are adding to inflation. Right. And there’s the Ukraine war. There’s obviously a lot of oil shortages and stuff. Now there’s an energy crisis. And these rate hikes, I mean, these have financial impacts, right?
Larry Lepard:
They have huge financial impacts. Think about the housing market. Think about people who have variable rate mortgages. Yeah, it’s bad stuff. And the thing is, if we look at what’s driving the inflation, there are a lot of things. Obviously they printed 40% more money, m two in 20 and 21. They did huge stimulus with the PPP and all that sort of stuff. And so that led to inflation. But also it’s a supply problem driven by Russia cutting things off and driven by supply chains being broken from COVID And you can’t solve getting that kind of inflation to go away is not a function of higher interest rates.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
I totally agree.
Larry Lepard:
And arguably, even if you think about what we really need is we need to make investments to increase productive capacity.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
And imagine doing that at the rate hikes that we’re looking at.
Larry Lepard:
That’s my point. If you need to make more investments, does raising rates really help? No, it increases the cost of capital for those companies that might need to make those investments. So counterintuitively the raising rates isn’t necessarily helping the inflation problem. It could be making it worse.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
I think we say this all the time, that if you really wanted to lower prices, you would want to lower that interest rates. So there’s this kind of production. And by raising rates right now, we’re going to add to this inflation problem.
Larry Lepard:
It’s very possible. I mean, there are competing forces. There are competing forces. But yeah, I think when the history of this time is written, this Fed is going to be just totally and rightly criticized very heavily.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
It’s ugly stuff.
Larry Lepard:
They’re not doing the right things.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
There is the right thing to do.
Larry Lepard:
Well, that’s true too. Well, there is. I mean, declare that we should go back to a gold standard and do a reset, but the odds of that happening are about zero.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Right. Well, okay, let’s jump now so we’ve been talking about central banks and interest rates are and I want to actually go to something that is now on our mind because we’re in October, we’ve been talking about zombies. These are zombie firms in the month of October for a zombie month. So I’ll quickly define for everyone. A zombie is a corporation that has profits that are less than their interest expense. The only reason that they’re still alive is because of these really forgiving credit markets and low interest rates. But now, as we just discussed, we’re in a rising rate environment. These zombies employ people, they produce goods and clearly they’re a big chunk of the economy. So what happens to these zombie firms that are already on the edge?
Larry Lepard:
They fail. They just fail is the bottom line. And this is why I believe that what the Fed is doing right now is going to drive us into an outcome that looks closer to 1929 than anything we’ve ever seen. Obviously there’s a lag between the time when you do a monetary policy thing and it affects the economy. But you know, the lag may not be that long in this particular case. I mean, recall that six months ago the housing market was on fire and everyone was queuing up to compete and pay more for houses. Now the housing market is flat to down, prices are falling rapidly, mortgage apps are falling rap because the 30 year mortgage went from 3% to 7% in less than six months. I mean, suddenly you can afford a lot less house with that kind of an interest rate and so that’ll flow through to everything. So there’ll be more realtors who are unemployed and there’ll be more people, there’ll be less construction being done and it’s a vicious cycle, right. And this is what happens. What we had was the world’s largest credit bubble and it was really all driven by zero interest rates policies from 2009 to 2015.
And they started trying to figure out how to get out of it in 2015 and they obviously weren’t able to do it in 2018 and 19 and they really didn’t do it in 2020. Now it’s gotten even worse and basically all that’s left to be done now is to mark to market and everyone accrues their losses and it’s going to be ugly as a result.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Yeah, it’s going to be ugly. But I want to talk now about gold and silver.
Larry Lepard:
Sure.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
So gold and silver are kind of in the sideways pattern at the moment, right? And there’s a lot of kind of contradictory things. You’ll see rate hikes but gold will move or it won’t. So where do you see gold and silver currently and where do you see the future? There’s definitely a lot of buying pressure but there’s also a lot of selling pressure. Do you think that selling pressure will abate in that buying?
Larry Lepard:
I do. And I think a lot of the selling pressure is just paper. I mean, one of the things I think is very interesting right now, I’m sure you’ve talked about in other interviews, is there’s not a lot of physical around to be bought. I was trying this morning to find some gold coins and some silver coins at some of the big sites, the big online sites, they’re all out of stock. The premium right now on silver coins is 80% over spot. The premium on gold coins, which I checked this morning, is 12% over spot. That premium used to be kind of it gold be 5%, maybe 6%. So it’s double, at least double what it used to be, which just tells you how tight the market for physical is. And I heard this anecdotally from a coin dealer that right after the bank of England event, he said his volume went up ten x. Wow. So I think the future for the metals prices is quite bright. I would say, however, that it hasn’t exactly hit yet because two things. One, paper manipulation. And two, in a tight monetary environment, everyone sells everything because you’re scrambling for cash.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
That’s right.
Larry Lepard:
And that’s what’s going on right now. But my view is that gold kind of has touched on the 2000 plus or minus area three times. In 2011 it was 1900. In the summer 2020 it was at 2050. And then last early this year is at 2070. So there’s kind of a ceiling at 2070 on gold, 25 gold. And I think once we break through that ceiling, we’re going to squirt up to 3000 really quickly.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Wow.
Larry Lepard:
Really? And that’s partly because everything in Wall Street’s algorithm driven and people chase new all time highs. So the next leg in gold, in my opinion, is going to be explosive to the upside. And it’s coming. It’s just more and more people need to kind of get the memo. I couldn’t believe it. I did another podcast this morning we were talking about there’s still a lot of people who are buying the dip in the stock market and they think the stock market is going to come roaring back. I don’t get it. I mean, I think earnings are going to be going down, I think multiples are going to be contracting and the bond market, as we all know, has been an unmitigated disaster. This is like the worst bond market in like 80 years or something. It’s a horrible thing. And that’s just because of this runaway inflation that they can’t really get control.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Of and it seems like there’s nothing.
Larry Lepard:
They can do to get control of no, it does. Look, and by the way, we may get some better inflation prints at some point this year over year comparison isn’t going to be quite so bad if the economy does slow down. They are killing a lot of demand. I mean, I looked at the PepsiCo numbers recently. They increased their prices 17%, but their revenues were only up 9%, which means their volume fell by 8%. So people are buying less sugar water, and I think that’s going to be true throughout the entire economy. It hasn’t affected employment yet, but employment is a lagging indicator. It’s definitely affected housing, and it’s going to affect other things as well. It’s affected used car prices. The bottom line on all this is the money is broken. They’ve really broken the monetary system when they went and printed remember the Fed balance sheet from 2008 to 2010 or eleven, it grew like $3 trillion over three or four years. We grew like almost $4 trillion in 18 months.
It was nuts. Just nuts. And then they gave all the free money away through COVID and all the PPP stuff. And then they increased, there was a year where the government deficit run rate was something along the lines of three or $4 trillion. I mean, that’s crazy to think that you can do those kinds of things and not have really adverse consequences. It’s weak thinking. It’s just fuzzy thinking.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Well, I want to jump on that because in monetary metals, we’re obviously huge, sound money advocates. The whole kind of mission or values is money.
Larry Lepard:
Right! Yeah. No, I know. Great. I might become a customer.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
We need you here. But what I want to talk about now is obviously for monetary metals customers, you’re earning ounces of gold. So it’s about the price of gold over time. You want more ounces.
Larry Lepard:
Right, right.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
But I want to talk about the worst performing asset of 2022. Get your thoughts on that. And I also want to hear what you think the worst performing asset of 2023 is going to be.
Larry Lepard:
So, 2022, I’m pretty sure it’s bonds, long bonds. I could be wrong, but it’s neck and neck between the triple Q and long bonds.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Can we stop there for a second?
Larry Lepard:
Sure.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Bonds, the worst asset of 2022?
Larry Lepard:
Oh, yeah. No, it’s because of the runaway inflation. And by the way, I think they might end up being the worst asset of 2023 as well.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Wow.
Larry Lepard:
Yeah, I don’t think this is over. I mean, I know there’s some people say, well, you can buy the dip in bonds. Well, maybe, maybe not. I mean, I would never buy any kind of a long bond. I mean, if you want to buy a one year and get 4%, I mean, 4% is better than it used to be. You got to remember, six months to a year ago, all the shorter maturity treasuries were yielding 1% or less, but now yielding 4%, that’s better. Right. And if you’re only in there for a year or two, okay, you’re not taking a ton of risk in the sense that, you know, the government will print the money to pay you back your bond. But even so, you’re still losing 4% a year if inflation is eight. And by the way, as we all know, the inflation isn’t what they really say it is. It’s worse. Import prices show that shadow government stats show that bonds are a pretty bad place to be and to me, an absolute must avoid. But having said that, stocks aren’t great either. And to the degree you want to be in stocks, I think you want to be in commodity related stocks.
=Because to me, the other macro big picture thing that I always try to emphasize is I think we’ve turned the corner on deflation from 1980 to basically 2020. Deflation was relentless and bonds were a one way bet by a long bond. It’ll always go up in value because interest rates are going down. Well, interest rates had hit zero. A lot of interest rates in Europe were negative.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Wow.
Larry Lepard:
There was no further down to go. I know, right? Yeah. There’s just no further down to go. And then they thought, well, we live in a different world. We don’t have inflation. And that’s how they got into the transitory mistake. And as it turns out, no, we do have inflation. You print 40% and send people a bunch of money, guess what? You’re going to have inflation.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
I want to ask you now, so there’s kind of a joke going around, this recession. We can’t talk about it.
Larry Lepard:
Right.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Instead, we can call it a banana. Right?
Larry Lepard:
Right.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
We’ve got a banana joke, so we’ve got a banana. What is the deal? Are we going to see a recession into 2023? Or do you think that Powell is going to say, hey, listen, the midterms are coming up and we can’t handle this pressure. We’re going to turn this banana around?
Larry Lepard:
Yeah, I don’t think Powell is going to pivot. I think he knows he’d lose all his credibility if he pivoted right now without an exogenous event. I could be wrong about that. But I think they need a serious market dysfunction that they could label a crisis. And then what will be able to say is, my pivot is what saved the day.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Right.
Larry Lepard:
The very same way Bernanke just got the Nobel Prize for, quote unquote, saving the day in 2008 by bailing out the banks. So I can see a pivot on a crisis. I can’t see one without one. But it’s coming. And when it does, it’s going to be massively inflationary. Because what really drives this whole picture is, do people trust the money or not? Do people trust the people managing the money? And they think the money is going to be good. And once they become sincerely convinced that the money is going to continually be debased, they start looking for alternatives, which is what your company offers. Which is what my fund offers, which is there are a lot of things that offer it. But you start saying to yourself, I can’t save this $100 or this $1,000 in cash because it will buy less than three years.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Well, let me get to that. So when you’re looking at negative interest rates.
Larry Lepard:
Right.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
And this happens negative real yeah.
Larry Lepard:
Or negative in Europe.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Negative in Europe, there’s negative real rates, but there’s negative nominal rates.
Larry Lepard:
Yeah, there were. Yeah.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
So let me maybe walk you through something and you tell me where I go wrong. So you have negative real rates, right. And you have negative nominal rates. So if you put your money in a bank, you’re losing money over time. You’re either going to speculate that stuff in the stock market right. Or you’re going to try to I don’t know. Where can you escape? There’s nowhere to escape. Minus gold and silver. Right. And these other currencies.
Larry Lepard:
I think that’s right. And I know you guys don’t sell, but I would have bitcoin in there, too. I think bitcoin is a digital form of gold that is an escape hatch. What you want to have is you want to have money that the state can’t control or print. And gold, silver and bitcoin are the three categories that are the most obvious examples of that.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Right. Well, okay. I want to get to kind of where your head space is at. What are you reading? Who are you kind of into? And I know we mentioned Bernanke got his Nobel Prize, but who is someone that you look up to, who should be winning a Nobel Prize other than me, in a couple of days?
Larry Lepard:
Well, Ron Paul, but sadly, we don’t have a lot of great leaders out there right now. I’m hoping some will emerge. I think that the Austrian economists have been badly ignored and that they accurately predicted and understood what’s going on here and posthumousley we should give Mises a Nobel prize. But these prizes, they’re all bullshit anyway. They’re basically just giving these things out to justify the stupid shit they did. And they did a bunch of stupid shit. I know, it’s horrible. I mean, don’t get me started, because to me, it’s just horrible. But he’s not the only one. They’re all bad. So yeah. There was another part of that question.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
What are you reading?
Larry Lepard:
What am I reading? I don’t know. I read all kinds of things. I read novels. I read a lot of economic things. There was a good book written by somebody who is actually kind of mainstream about the policies of the Fed. I’m forgetting the name of it now. If we can look it up afterwards.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Show notes.
Larry Lepard:
Yeah. And put it in the show notes. I read The Mandibles, which is a very interesting novel. You’re familiar with it? Yeah, very interesting novel about what family and what happened to them when the currency failed in America, which was eyeopening to me. It’s not pleasant, but it was eye opening to me. I read novels. I just recently read under the Scarlet Sky, which is the story of an Italian kid who helped fight the Nazis in Italy in World War II. All kinds of things, mostly economic related stuff. Though there are a couple of good books I’ve got on my night stand. I’m drawing a blank on the name, but if it’s economics and policy related I’ve read it, or it’s on the list to read.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Okay, well, now I want to ask you kind of a different question here, so I want to know what is some of the best investing advice you’ve got? Because we’re at the New Orleans Investment Conference, and maybe you can impart some wisdom.
Larry Lepard:
Yeah, I’d be happy to. I remember this very clearly when I was just out of business school, and I was working for an old guy who has passed away since then, and he was a very savvy guy. And I don’t know, we were out after work somewhere having a beer, and he said, this is as hard as you think. It’s really john hawaii. Well, look at it this way. He said, Remember, in investing, you can only lose $1 or one times what you put up. If you’re not stupid, you don’t put good money after bad. You hear a story, you think it through, you go, this ought to make sense. You invest in it. You’re wrong. You can lose one dollars. But you know what? If you’re right and if you pick carefully, you might make $2 or $3 or $5 or $10. And that’s asymmetry right, that you can make a lot more than you can lose. So he said, look, you just try and find situations where you think it’s a better than even bet that it’s going to work, right? And you find those kinds of odds, you’re going to get way ahead.
He was right. He was an early investor in Apple. He had many, many investment success. He was an early investor in intel. It was kind of like try and buy something that’s a good story, good quality has got a big tailwind and macro trend behind it. And even if you’re paying a little too much for it, just buy it, because knowing that over time, trends tend to continue. And then if it works, you’re going to do extremely well, and occasionally you’ll get it wrong. But you’ve got to live with that. You got to be prepared. You got to take the risk. Be prepared to maybe lose a dollar. I mean, when Apple first came out, it was very controversial. That’s a personal computer. You really need one, right? Look what it is today. Right? I remember when the Internet first came out. Kirkwood says it’s no more important than the fax machine. Everyone thought it was no big deal. I made a ton of Internet investments. They were great. So it’s kind of like you’ve got to be able to be maybe where some other people aren’t because you’re a little bit early. But if you see something that’s working and you see a big trend behind it, that’s a very powerful thing.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
I want to ask you one more question before we head out, but where can people find your work? I mean, obviously you’re on Twitter.
Larry Lepard:
Yeah, I’m on Twitter, and I make a lot of noise there, as you know. Right. So it’s just my name at Lawrence Lepard, but I also have a website. It’s called EMA2.com. And I publish all my letters. I publish a lot of white papers. We publish charts and so forth. So it’s all free. So you can go there. And that gives you a sense of how we view the world. It might be helpful.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Great, last question here. What’s the question we should be asking the rest of the people who sit in your chair?
Larry Lepard:
Oh, boy. I don’t know. I think that it’s important to ask everybody. This was actually Brent Johnson’s point of his presentation the other day. I think it’s important to ask everybody, have they stress tested their investment choices against all the possible outcomes and variables? Because we really do live. This is a very big what’s going on right now is a fourth turning, very big event. And everything’s changing. The rules are going to change. And I think one of the great mistakes I think a lot of investors right now are making is they’re investing in the rear view mirror. I mean, if you’ve been in the stock market since 2008, the right answer has always been by the dip. By the dip, because they’ll print it’ll, solve it, things will go higher, and it will hit new records that’s worked for a long, long time until the top in 2021. That top won’t be exceeded for 20 years, in my opinion. And so the people who are buying the dip right now, they’re going to get their asses handed to them. I mean, I’m highly confident that now I might get my ass handed to me too, but maybe in a different way, in a different segment.
My point is that you’ve got to kind of test all your assumptions and you’ve got to think about why you are where you’re at and what could happen if it goes against you. And that’s why you want to have diversity. And once again, if you can only lose one X, but you can make five or ten X and you have enough bets out there, you’re going to be fine. That’s the way I view it.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Larry, it’s been a pleasure having you.
Larry Lepard:
Absolutely nice to be with you.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Fix the money, Fix the world.
Larry Lepard:
Thank you. That’s what we’re trying to do. You guys are too.
Benjamin Nadelstein:
Thanks so much and we’ll see you soon on the Gold Exchange podcast!
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