Gold and Silver Speculation

There is a stark difference between the states of the markets for the monetary metals. The number of open futures contracts in gold is low, while in silver it’s high. First, let’s look at the data and then we’ll discuss what it means. Here is the graph showing the open interest. The picture is clear […]

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Why Was China Carrying Gold?

Zero Hedge has run an excellent article explaining the use of commodities, beginning with copper, to work around the Chinese government’s imposed capital controls[1]. Capital controls are intended to prevent arbitrage between the dollar interest rate and the yuan interest rate, which is much higher. To keep this gap open, and prevent the arbitrage—aka hot […]

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Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part III (Gold as a Commodity) by Keith Weiner

In Part I, we discussed the concept of arbitrage. We showed why defining it as a risk-free investment that earns more than the risk-free rate of interest is invalid. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment, and in any case economics must be focused on the acting man rather than theoretical constructs. We […]

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The National Debt Cannot Be Paid Off

Government spending is out of control and, while most say they want spending cuts, people oppose cuts that impact them. Among those who get government money, there’s practically an unspoken, unbreakable pact to keep the money coming. But when I say that the national debt cannot be paid off, it’s not a political forecast; it’s […]

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Guest Post: Western Bank Exposure to Mainland China Explodes Higher – Australia Vulnerable

Author Pater Tenebrarum, Acting Man We recently cited the work of Sean Darby, equity strategist at Jefferies, regarding the exposure of Hong Kong banks to the Mainland (see: “How Dangerous is China’s Credit Bubble for the World” for details). Although Hong Kong is technically part of China, it is a foreign country in terms of its […]

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Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part II (the Lease Rate)

In Part I, we discussed the concept of arbitrage. We showed why defining it as a risk-free investment that earns more than the risk-free rate of interest is invalid. There is no such thing as a risk-free investment, and in any case, economics must be focused on the acting man rather than theoretical constructs. We […]

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Bitcoin, Gold, and the Quantity of Mone

The popular view today is based on the linear Quantity Theory of Money. It seems to be common sense. If more units of a currency are issued, then the value of each unit should fall. Many people may not think of it in explicit terms, but the idea is that the value of one unit […]

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Gold Arbitrage and Backwardation Part I

Professor Tom Fischer has written three papers[1][2][3] about gold backwardation and arbitrage. Across these three papers, he makes a case against the ideas of Professor Antal Fekete. I write this response solely on my own behalf. I do not speak on behalf of Fekete or his New Austrian school of Economics. I have two motivations […]

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The Curious Widening of the Bid-Ask Spread in Silver

Last week, I wrote about a curious development in silver. The bid-ask spread widened in November and December. My article concluded: One should regard this as another type of rot in the core of the system. The point of my dissertation is that narrowing spreads is a sign of increasing economic coordination, and widening spreads […]

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A Curious Development in Silver

I write frequently about supply and demand in the monetary metals, gold and silver. I’ve argued that one cannot just look at numbers pertaining to “famous” buyers or sellers like India or the People’s Bank of China, while ignoring thousands or millions of anonymous people who are on the other side of the trade. Who […]

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