Falling Interest Causes Falling Wages

Interest rates have been falling for over three decades. Conventional economics has two things to say about this. One, inflation expectations are falling. Monetarists believe that the interest rate is set based on bond traders’ predictions of future price increases. Two, if employment and GDP are weak, then the central bank should increase the money […]

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Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 15 Mar, 2015

Last week, we talked about currencies. This week, let’s look at what the dollar is worth. No, we don’t mean purchasing power, which is just the inverse of consumer prices. Every day, every business that wants to remain alive is busy cutting costs. Real prices are in free fall, and some dollar prices too. For […]

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Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 8 Mar, 2015

Last week, we borrowed a phrase from Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings.  We said it felt like, “the deep breath before the plunge”. We added, “We don’t necessarily mean a plunge in the price of gold measured in dollars. It could be a plunge in the price of the dollar. And there are […]

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A Salvo in the Battle for the Gold Standard

I wrote what I thought was a fairly simple article for Forbes on Tuesday. I noticed that some people really got it, and they were very excited. However, others were skeptical or asking questions that went into the weeds. The former tells me that I said something important, but the latter says that I said […]

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Monetary Metals Brief 2015

It’s the start of a new year. The question on everyone’s mind is whither the prices of gold and silver? This Brief presents our answer (and the full Monetary Metals Outlook 2015 report gives our reasoning). One approach to the question of price is to draw a line, extrapolating the past trend into the future. […]

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The Swiss Franc Will Collapse

I have worked to keep this piece readable, and as brief as possible. My grave diagnosis demands the evidence and reasoning to support it. One cannot explain the collapse of this currency with the conventional view. “They will print money to infinity,” may be popular but it’s not accurate. The coming destruction has nothing to […]

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In America, Government Pays You Interest. In Switzerland, You Pay Government.

The old joke is, “(with a Russian accent) In America, you correct newspaper, but in Soviet Union, newspaper corrects you.” Switzerland is now experiencing the bond market equivalent. In America, the government pays you to borrow but in Switzerland you pay the government. All Swiss bonds have a negative yield out to 9 years. Negative […]

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Crude Oil Supply and Demand

We don’t normally analyze the crude oil market. However, there has been a huge price move (which may not be complete yet). With the endless rumors of deals that explain the move, we thought we would look at the spreads. The data shows a startling picture. You should approach supply and demand in this market […]

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Going All-In On a Weak Argument

In Poker, to go all in means to bet everything you have. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that, at least so far as the mainstream audience is concerned, we gold advocates have gone all in. We have made one argument: we should adopt the gold standard, because inflation. By inflation, […]

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Supply and Demand Update 2 Dec

This is a brief follow up on the Supply and Demand Report of 30 November. In that report, we observed an extraordinary development in the gold market. We made several predictions, which came true almost immediately. We don’t always expect this to happen, but today we think it’s worth looking at what we said and […]

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