June 26 Silver Flash Crash: A Forensic Analysis

On Friday morning, at around midnight (Arizona time), the price of silver had a little crash. It dropped 30 cents in 11 minutes. More importantly, it dropped more than 10 cents in a single second. Then, the price rose above its level before the event. Here is a graph of the event, with each tick […]

Continue Reading Comments { 2 }

Interest – Inflation = #REF

I have to admit that I derive some pleasure in taking on hoary old myths. For example, some economists assert that the interest rate you see on the Treasury bond is not real. You see, it’s only nominal. To calculate the real rate, they say you must adjust the nominal rate by inflation. Real Interest […]

Continue Reading Comments { 5 }

They’re Coming to Take Away Your Cash

The stories are all over the Internet. Governments are forcing us into a cashless society. Supposedly the pretext is terrorism, and the real reason is to take more control. No doubt more power appeals to politicians, and banning cash seems like the next step after mandatory reporting of cash transactions. However, I think there is […]

Continue Reading Comments { 8 }

Monetary Metals Gold to Hit $64,000 Report: 24 May, 2015

The Bloomberg headline thunders, “Chinese Gold Standard Would Need a Rate 50 Times Bullion’s Price”! The text of the article follows up on this assertion with a price of $64,000 an ounce. Since it’s common Internet Knowledge that China is moving to a gold standard, it’s a fact that gold is going to $64,000. Everyone […]

Continue Reading Comments { 4 }

Think Different About Purchasing Power

The dollar is always losing value. To measure the decline, people turn to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), or various alternative measures such as Shadow Stats or Billion Prices Project. They measure a basket of goods, and we can see how it changes every year. However, companies are constantly cutting costs. If we see nominal—i.e. […]

Continue Reading Comments { 8 }

Falling Interest Causes Falling Wages

Interest rates have been falling for over three decades. Conventional economics has two things to say about this. One, inflation expectations are falling. Monetarists believe that the interest rate is set based on bond traders’ predictions of future price increases. Two, if employment and GDP are weak, then the central bank should increase the money […]

Continue Reading Comments { 17 }

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 15 Mar, 2015

Last week, we talked about currencies. This week, let’s look at what the dollar is worth. No, we don’t mean purchasing power, which is just the inverse of consumer prices. Every day, every business that wants to remain alive is busy cutting costs. Real prices are in free fall, and some dollar prices too. For […]

Continue Reading Comments { 6 }

Monetary Metals Supply and Demand Report: 8 Mar, 2015

Last week, we borrowed a phrase from Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings.  We said it felt like, “the deep breath before the plunge”. We added, “We don’t necessarily mean a plunge in the price of gold measured in dollars. It could be a plunge in the price of the dollar. And there are […]

Continue Reading Comments { 4 }

A Salvo in the Battle for the Gold Standard

I wrote what I thought was a fairly simple article for Forbes on Tuesday. I noticed that some people really got it, and they were very excited. However, others were skeptical or asking questions that went into the weeds. The former tells me that I said something important, but the latter says that I said […]

Continue Reading Comments { 15 }

Monetary Metals Brief 2015

It’s the start of a new year. The question on everyone’s mind is whither the prices of gold and silver? This Brief presents our answer (and the full Monetary Metals Outlook 2015 report gives our reasoning). One approach to the question of price is to draw a line, extrapolating the past trend into the future. […]

Continue Reading Comments { 14 }