Silver Basis

Silver Basis (near contract)

This chart shows the near silver futures contact basis and cobasis against the US dollar’s price in grams of silver.

The basis is a measure of the per annum return from carrying silver and is an indicator of abundance (the market would only offer a profit to arbitrageurs to stockpile silver if there was excess supply relative to demand). The cobasis is a measure of the per annum return from decarrying silver and is an indicator of scarity (the market would only offer a profit to arbitrageurs to sell silver from their stocks if there was a deficiency of supply relative to demand).

This chart should be read in conjunction with the Silver Carry/Decarry (near contract) chart (that shows the actual dollar per ounce profit/loss) as small dollar values that may not be worth arbitraging can produce larger basis/cobasis percentage as the days to expiry of a contract falls.

Note: this chart switches to the next contract 14 days from the start of first notice day.

3 Month Chart of Silver Basis (near contract)

Chart of the basis and cobasis for the near Comex silver futures contract and the US dollar bid priced in grams of silverChart of the basis and cobasis for the near Comex silver futures contract and the US dollar bid priced in grams of silver

Max Chart of Silver Basis (near contract)

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Silver Basis Continuous

Silver Basis Continuous

This chart shows a continuous (splicing together of individual) basis and cobasis against the US dollar’s price in grams of silver.

The basis is a measure of the per annum return from carrying silver and is an indicator of abundance (the market would only offer a profit to arbitrageurs to stockpile silver if there was excess supply relative to demand). The cobasis is a measure of the per annum return from decarrying silver and is an indicator of scarity (the market would only offer a profit to arbitrageurs to sell silver from their stocks if there was a deficiency of supply relative to demand).

3 Month Chart of Silver Basis Continuous

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3 Year Chart of Silver Basis Continuous

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Max Chart of Silver Basis Continuous

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Silver Carry/Decarry (near contract)

Silver Carry/Decarry (near contract)

This chart shows the dollar per ounce carry and decarry that could be earned on the near silver futures contact.

One carries silver by buying silver at spot and selling a future contract, that is, Future Bid Price less Spot Ask Price. One decarries silver by selling silver at spot and buying a future contract, that is, Spot Bid Price less Future Ask Price.

This chart should be read in conjunction with the Silver Basis (near contract) chart which shows the carry/decarry in percentage terms.

Note: this chart switches to the next contract 14 days from the start of first notice day.

3 Month Chart of Silver Basis in Dollars (near contract)

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Max Chart of Silver Basis in Dollars (near contract)

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Silver Roll Costs

Silver Roll Costs

This chart shows the cost of rolling silver from the near contract to the next contract if one has:

• a long position, that is, sell near, buy next (Near Contract Bid Price less Next Contract Ask Price)
• a short position, that is, buy near, sell next (Next Contract Bid Price less Near Contract Ask Price)

We define the next contact as the current contract as long as it is more than 14 days from the start of its delivery month, at which point we switch to the next closest contract.

3 Month Chart of Silver Roll Costs

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3 Year Chart of Silver Roll Costs

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Max Chart of Silver Roll Costs

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Silver Term Structure

Silver Term Structure

This chart shows the basis and cobasis for all of silver’s futures contracts, positioned on the x-axis according to total calendar weeks to expiry. Similar to an interest rate yield curve for cash, this shows the per annum return for carrying or decarrying silver as the maturity increases.

Note: this chart excludes any contract which is within 14 days from the start of its first notice day or in its delivery month.

Chart of Silver Term Structure

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All charts are up to date as of Fri, December 8, 2017.