Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

Homebuilder confidence increased in May. Lumber prices in the last two months? Not so much, down over 20%.

When I was a kid, I saw many competing stereo receivers offering higher and higher wattage. It was pretty ridiculous to see these lightweight and flimsy boxes claiming to put out 500 watts or more. Clearly a “watt was not a watt”. And China’s purported 7.6% growth rate is not 7.6% growth. The above graph shows electricity consumption rising only 1.9%. Also, there is this graph below.

One would think that China’s exports to Hong Kong should always be exactly equal to Hong Kong’s imports from China.

It’s a world of falling interest rates, which means falling demand and falling productivity. Be careful out there.