Tag Archive for: arbitrage

A Free Market for Goods, Services, and Money

A thesis submitted September 3, 2012 by Keith Weiner to the Graduate Faculty of the New Austrian School of Economics, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Major Subject: Monetary Science. Abstract A free market is composed of people who produce and trade the products of their efforts in […]

Thoughtful Disagreement with Ted Butler – Gold Basis

This article follows on from Keith Weiner’s response to Ted Butler’s Thoughtful Disagreement challenge. Below is a graph of all 130 gold contracts since February 1996, aligned by contract age in terms of number of days until expiry on the X axis of the chart and basis in percentage per annum on the Y axis. […]

Thoughtful Disagreement with Ted Butler

Dear Mr Butler: In your article of 2 October, entitled Thoughtful Disagreement, you say, “someone will come up with the thoughtful disagreement that makes the body of my premise invalid or the price of silver will validate the premise by exploding.” I will take you up on your request. You state your case in this […]

Gold and Silver Speculation

There is a stark difference between the states of the markets for the monetary metals. The number of open futures contracts in gold is low, while in silver it’s high. First, let’s look at the data and then we’ll discuss what it means. Here is the graph showing the open interest. The picture is clear […]

What is the Meaning of GLD Gold Outflows?

A quick glance at the data for ounces held by each Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) shows that right after the crash of 2008, ounces began to pour into GLD. Ignoring a little jitter, there was no significant outflow until 2013. GLD has lost over 20% of its metal so far this year, dropping from about […]

The Dollar is Going Up

Let’s take a look at a few graphs of the dollar, from Feb 1, 2013 through Friday May 17, 2013. Yes, I said graphs of the dollar. I’ve priced the dollar in gold first (of course), then silver, the euro, and even the yen. The pattern is obvious. The dollar is going up. I did […]

Why does the “Paper Gold” Price Track the Physical Gold Price? Postscript

This article is a follow-up to Part II.  I expound upon a point I touched on, and also address some questions raised by readers. First, let’s look at an update of the open interest numbers as of Feb 6.  Gold’s open interest actually declined further. Next, here is an update of the bases.  The gold […]

Why does the “Paper Gold” Price Track the Physical Gold Price? Part II

In Part I of this article, we looked at arbitrage between the physical metal market and the futures market.  We saw that there are arbitrageurs who straddle the spread between these markets, who don’t care about price but about the difference between two prices.  They seek to profit, not from a change to the gold price, […]

Why does the “Paper Gold” Price Track the Physical Gold Price? Part I

It’s curious, isn’t it?  So-called “paper gold” (a futures contract) has a price that is not only very close to physical gold, but it remains locked to it.  This is despite the fact that “paper gold” is reviled in the gold community. I am writing this on Sunday evening with little liquidity in the market, […]

The Trillion Dollar Coin

There has been much buzz in the past few days about a truly horrible idea.  Instead of having to negotiate with Congress to raise the debt ceiling so the Treasury Department can sell more bonds to pay for more spending, why not just mint a trillion-dollar platinum coin?  This coin would contain one ounce of […]